Yup, check it out.

Michael

Thank being said, I am going to do something different.

I will be setting up a more "commercial blog". This blog will describe Six Sigma, PMP and other IT Management insights working from my background. Should be interesting and hopefully get some of my ideas out.

I have most of the iraq photos on facebook (more coming). But eventually, this site will be taken down so I can put the new site up.

Take care. Been a great blog run.

Michael

I talked to my writing partner last week and we are submitting a new draft to the Producer. I am still being hopeful.

Michael, working like a dog, out.

Dvorak Blog: One of the most prolific Tech gurus in the nation. Some interesting blog posts on technology and "news of the weird".

Mint.com: Although I don't want to look at my 401k and investments, since I use Mint for all my financial tracking, I do see its progress (or lack thereof).

Yahoo Finance: Probably one of the best stock/finance sites around.

Get Rich Slowly: I really like this financial blog. Some great ideas here.

Digg.com: Interesting links updated constantly.

Fark.com: More links updated constantly

Msnbc.com: General news site

News.google.com: general news site

Woot.com: Some pretty amazing deals here.

Lifehacker.com: Interesting articles and links

I also check facebook, MyExtralife and hulu, but only while at the house.

Epicproblem, 12 stones, Dad's blog etc: I usually check out my friends blogs once every other week.

Well, that's all from me.

Michael, out.

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 10/17/2008 is -36.0%

Michael, Out.

Tara has to go back to the doctor to check on some abnormal tests she had. Alyson has scoliosis and feet issues and Lauryn just caught a stomach bug and has been vomiting all day. (Yep, I am on cleanup duty).

Needless to say it hasn't been much fun at our house. Good news is that I am taking off Wed-Fri! Going to be nice to have a few days off. I am hoping I don't get sick though.....

Please send the good thoughts, prayers, etc for the sick family.

Michael, cleaning up Lauryn, out.

http://www.slideshare.net/guesta9d12e/subprime-primer-277484/

(Be warned, some naughty language), but it does explain how this whole mess started.

Michael, out.

http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/be-logical-captain

- Cullen Hightower

(Caveat: I am not a financial whiz, nor adviser. I do have a plethora of financial websites, blogs and TV shows that I watch and generally consider myself pretty knowledgeable in the markets. It's always important to do your own research and "due diligence".)

Ok, this whole financial "meltdown" is driving most people including the talking heads and pundits into a tizzy so I figured I might as well throw my hat into the ring and give you my thoughts.

First, there is no doubt in my mind that we are in a recession, and possibly even a deflationary recession, which is probably the most painful kind of recession there is. Second, the US hasn't experienced this kind of financial crisis since 1929. However, the USA has a much better plan to handle the "step down" recession model that most experts think will happen. (think of stairs going down. We will see large drops over time and then flat. Then another downward trend, then flat again. Eventually it will be flat for a while and then trend back up)

Remember that The Baby Boomers and Generation X and Y haven't experienced a deep recession like we will see in the next 24 months. I don't think we'll slide into a depression (Unemployment in the neighborhood of 20-25%) but it is possible, but unlikely.

Predictions:

Over the next 24 months the market will proceed in a step down deflation lowering overall market value. Personally, I believe the DOW will drop to the 7000-8000 mark. I doubt it will go much lower than that.

House prices will continue to fall (median house price) another 20-30%.

As credit tightens up, unemployment will dramatically increase. Current unemployment is around 6.1%. I foresee this to increase to 10-15% (last seen in the 80's recession) over the next 24 months. Getting loans for just about anything will be difficult.

Prices will fall as consumers tighten their belts (consumers provide 2/3 of economic growth in USA). As this happens, companies, unable to raise prices, will trim their company's payrolls increasing unemployment. (Inflation could be a problem, but I really have my doubts that this will happen.)

Gold will rally probably breaking the 1000 ceiling. Oil will continue to drop and stabilize around 60-80 dollars a barrel. Other commodity prices will fall dramatically (Steel, Copper, Grain, Corn, etc).

Companies in Power, Infrastructure, Environmental, Alternative Energy, discount stores, etc will do well over the next 24 months.

Companies in Defense, financial, airlines, travel, luxury goods, "mall stores", etc will not do well over the next 24 months.

Taxes will increase. The writing is on the wall here.

Barak Obama will win the election. (I think we all pretty much see this happening whether you support him or not)

So what am I doing?

First, is to limit spending and build cash reserves. You need to calculate your bills over a 6-12 month span and have that cash sitting in a money market account (FDIC insured). I just moved my money market accounts to ING Direct.

If you have cash to invest and have "fully funded" cash reserves, I would follow my DRIPS plan and invest in KO, MO, GE. Buffet is doing the same, so I must be on to something here.

If the company you work for is not in the fields that I mentioned above that I think will do well, polish up that resume. Start networking with sites like Linkedin. Interestingly enough the best time to go back to school full time is during a recession as well. The key to finding a new job is network NOT Dice, Monster, etc. Now is the time to be noticed in the company you work for. Good employees are very expensive for companies to replace, make sure you are one of them.

Trim spending and get a budget.

Continue to FULLY fund your 401k program. Even with the losses with company match, you are still doing well. With the tax incentives and "buying low" mentality, it's still a good choice. You could move your money around if you want, but I am sticking to my long term plan and not messing much with my fund choices.

Get out of debt. In a perfect world, you wouldn't have any debt, but with most of us, we have a house, cars, etc we have to pay for. Ideally, 1 house note and 1 car note should be your only debt obligations. Get rid of credit card debt.

Remember that this is just a period in time. Don't panic and sell everything (as Jim Cramer suggested). Stay calm and remember that you're in this for the long haul.

The days of making 20% returns in a year are over. As you see with my predictions of a curve, it steps down and flattens before going back up.

Well, that's all I can think of at the moment. Again, getting your cash reserves up and getting out of debt are most important. I think most of these stocks are really battered down. I am even thinking of taking a small amount of cash and buying FRE, FNM while it is so low and holding it for a few years.

Michael, looking at his mint.com summary, out.

I will be heading to Boston next week. It's been a while since I have had to travel and the break has been nice. The project is going well also. We are at the point where most of the "heavy lifting" is done and now we are in maintenance and operations mode.

Tara is already starting to plan holiday schedules. It looks like she wants to go to Atlanta a week before Thanksgiving to see her Dad, then come home to BTR and spend Thanksgiving Day with her Mom. We are heading to Tampa for Christmas with my parents this year also. Going to be a busy holiday season!

I received new office furniture yesterday also. It isn't very "feng shui" but it works. For some reason this office is VERY cold. My thermostat says it is 73 degree's but I would argue it is in the upper 60's which is pretty cold for me. I probably will need to start bringing a jacket just to sit in my office. I still need to put up the "me wall" with all the certifications, degree, etc. as well.

We have been getting involved with "small groups" at our church. We meet weekly at someone's house (this week it is our house) and since we are all couples, the conversations can get very interesting. So far it's been lots of fun.

I realize this is a pretty boring post, but not much has been going on. The attention on the political campaign (I still don't know who I will vote for), and the financial crisis seems to be taking most of the attention. All I can say is that I am not looking at my 401k/investments, I am continuing to buy investments, and ignoring most of the political speak.

That's all from me.

Michael, out.

Will Rogers

This whole bailout mess really makes me mad. Personally, any bailout makes me mad. I pay my mortgage, pay all my bills, have no debt, and we are going to "reward" everyone who made bad decisions? The idea that we are going to pay 700 BILLION for worthless garbage seems a bit crazy to me. I am no economist, but I have been reading many of them and from what I can tell, they think this is madness too.

Someone sent me this website. See if you can balance the budget. I was able to get to 2042 before the budget was busted. (I cut as much junk as I could). I still increased school, science and technology investments (Except NASA! I worked with NASA, trust me.. There are many cuts we could make there and most government agencies).

Things are going well in spite of the madness in the economy. Tara is doing well at school teaching, girls are doing well as well. It's frightening how fast they are growing up. Of course Keyser is doing well too!

I will have to head back to Boston soon. I need to get up there for meetings. To be honest, it has been nice not having to travel as much. I probably will need to go to China one more time, but I am hoping it will be a short trip.

That's all from me.

Michael, out.

PS: I almost forgot, I never thought I would see the day. My Dad who gets frustrated with most technology (and wont install Instant Messenger) signed up for Facebook! Go Dad!

Kids grow up so fast, I wasn't around much when Lauryn was younger and now I feel like most of her childhood is gone. Alyson is starting to blossom into a young woman (dealing with all the hormones that it entails) and seeing the kids grow older just brings home that I am getting older.

Now I know how my parents felt each birthday. It's not so much a reminder that your kids are getting older, rather it is a reminder that YOU are getting older.

Still I am excited for her. She wanted a electric scooter for her birthday which she now has, but can't use it until she gets a new helmet. The scooter is really fast (frightening fast to be honest), but she loves it.

That's all from me. Happy Birthday Lauryn, Dad loves you.

Michael, out.

I have been saving lots of links for the next LINK MADNESS!

D&D Dead? (yeah I know its old)

Very interesting story of asassins in Columbia

The rise of American incompetence.

10 Shows that changed TV history

If your a tekkie, this site shows all the Star Trek bridges.

How to "fight back" against the corp titans.

Top 15 Sci-Fi book series.

10 harmless geek pranks

6 ways to spend less while dining out

Interesting "Last Supper" remakes.

Top 100 April fool's hoaxes.

Da Nag 1975. The last flight out.

Interesting graphic on forclosures.

10 myths on saving gas

Very Funny "Billy Letters"

Top 10 Tech workspaces.

Get paid 5k to stay in bed for a month?

Yes, things are costing more across the board.

8 smart kids that will make you sick.

99 uses for really ordinary things.

How to start a fire without matches.

Well. Thats all from me. Enjoy!

Michael, out.

Things are going well here. Tara is enjoying teaching, the girls are doing well in school and my project seems to be progressing well. Keyser is also a big part of the family as well. He is always getting into things (I guess it is a boy thing).

I bought Spore (in spite of their repressive DRM). I have been wondering if the game is as good as the reviews. I'll let you know.

I am not sure if I have mentioned, but I recently signed up with mint.com. I have to say, I am really impressed. If you want free online software to help manage your investment/budget, mint.com is the way to go.

The recent problems in the US market and overall economy has me a bit worried, but I personally think it is a great buying opportunity. I buy GE stock monthly and also am thinking of Altria and maybe adding Coke to my DRIP program. DRIP's are a great way to invest small amounts monthly. It should be a part of your overall investment package ( Money markets, IRA's, 401k, etc).

Anyway, that is all from me.

Michael, out.